Over the past year, Russia’s campaign of one-way attack unmanned aerial vehicle (OWA-UAV) strikes against Ukraine has evolved into a sustained saturation strategy designed to exhaust Ukraine’s air defenses, erode civilian morale, and destroy key military, energy, and civilian targets.

On July 9th, Russia launched its most intense assault to date, unleashing a record-setting wave of 728 attack and decoy Shahed OWA-UAVs, along with 13 missiles, in a single night—killing over 30 people. This marked a stark contrast to 2023, when triple-digit munition strikes were rare, and even to early 2024, when attacks were high in volume but often blunted by cost-effective “WW2-style” mobile fire units—intercepting almost half of the incoming fire at one point —alongside electronic warfare, ground-based missiles, and aviation.

Still, Russia had long planned to scale up production and began modifying the Shaheds (Geran in Russian designation)—hoping that the combination of brute force, adaptive tactics, and innovation would overwhelm Ukraine’s air defenses. If Russia maintains its current production rates of Shahed drones and decoys—along with its escalating salvo sizes—we are likely to see the first 1,000-munition strike wave against Ukraine between August and October of this year.

Please visit the Pravo Ventures Intelligence Hub for the full briefing. Limited extracts from Pravo Intelligence Briefings are presented on T-Intelligence for reader convenience as part of a T-Intelligence and Pravo Ventures partnership.

Cover image: Kyiv City State Administration, Remains of Russian missiles and drones in Kyiv (2023-05-12) 05.jpg, CC BY 4.0

Vlad Sutea

Founder of T-Intelligence. OSINT analyst & instructor, with experience in defense intelligence (private sector), armed conflicts, and geopolitical flashpoints.

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