Venezuela continues to implement military and political measures in preparation to invade Guyana and annex the energy-rich Esequibo region.

The vast majority of Esequibo’s energy reserves are offshore which brings the threat of war to the sea.

Regional mediation efforts are underway to de-escalate tensions with Colombia, Brazil, and the U.S., facilitating bilateral talks. However, Caracas is steaming ahead with bellicose narratives against Guyana, increased military readiness, and legislation that formalizes the anticipated integration of Esequibo into the Venezuelan state.

Seafarers, shipping companies, and insurers should be aware of the threat parameters should tensions percolate into a direct military confrontation. Understanding the threat systems, geographical areas, and possible scenarios is key to mitigate threats to maritime security and continuing operations undisrupted. 

 Our intelligence assessment covers the following points:

  • Situation between Venezuela and Guyana as of Q2 2024
  • Geographical scope of threat to international shipping in the Caribbean Sea-Atlantic Ocean
  • Military threats to international shipping (incl. type and ranges)
  • Threatcast on possible future long-range threat akin to the situation around Yemen
  • Conditions that could bring the threatcasted scenario to reality 
  • Key risk indicators ahead