Archive for the
‘Ex-Soviet’ Category

Transnistria’s ‘Congress of Deputies’, the highest decision-making body in Moldova’s separatist region, proved to be of little to no significance. Although Moldova and Ukraine successfully anticipated that the congress would be inconsequential, international public opinion fell into the trap of anticipated escalation based on the ‘annexation’ scenario put forward by a Transnistrian oppositionist.  The explicitly […]

The Arctic Circle is at the forefront of international geopolitical competition for shorter shipping routes, untapped oil & gas reserves, rare earth element & critical mineral deposits, and icebreaker shipbuilding and services. Unlock this free Executive Report and gain intelligence on: the global maritime shortcut offered by Arctic routes, including the Northern Sea Route, the […]

The so-called president of Moldova’s Transnistria breakaway region has called for a general congress of deputies– many fear the separatists will ask to join Russia, raising tensions. While under normal circumstances,  the notion that Transnistria would seek annexation by Russia could be dismissed as a recurring scare tactic or psychological operations (psyops), the current regional […]

Transnistria’s ‘traffic police’ incorporating first-person view (FPV) drones could signal the increasing adoption of a Ukraine war staple among the separatists’ ‘security and military forces’ as ordered by the Tiraspol leadership earlier this year.  TRANSNISTRIAN ‘INTERIOR MINISTRY FLIES FPV DRONES On 20FEB24, the so-called Transnistrian state traffic inspectorate initiated a trial using FPV drones to […]

The deteriorating situation in Avdiivka has become Colonel General Oleksandr Syrsky’s inaugural challenge since being appointed Ukraine’s commander-in-chief (CIC) on 8FEB24. Latest battlefield intelligence suggests that Russian forces have severed the main supply route (MSR) for the Ukrainian defenders in Avdiivka on 13FEB. This move divides the urban area into two pockets: the Coke and […]

In January 2024, the Republic of Moldova (including Transnistria) registered the following developments in its multi-sector security environment:  Foreign Relations and European Integration Noteworthy developments from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and European Integration, including official meetings and phone conversations President Sandu’s major meetings and discussions Defense Modernization Moldovan National Army (MNA) personnel training priorities […]

Novatek’s Ust-Luga Gas Complex in Leningrad oblast, Russia, came under drone attack on 21 January 2024. The strike was accurate and targeted a specific area of the Ust-Luga Gas Condensate Fractionation and Transshipment Complex. This resulted in significant damage facility damage with ripple effects for Novatek’s operations and business.  By unlocking this assessment, you will […]

Moldova and Transnistria undergo a security turning point in December 2023. Our December edition covers the end of the state of emergency, EU membership negotiations, defense modernization, and regional developments with Ukraine and Romania. KEY JUDGEMENTS  Moldova formally ended its state of emergency on 30DEC23. Chisinau chose not to prolong the measures after their expiration. […]

The Russian invasion of Ukraine enters 2024 with significant uncertainty and high stakes. Russia and Ukraine view 2024 as a waypoint in what is almost certainly a long war marked by intense attrition, limited territorial change, and perceived medium to long-term opportunities to achieve their maximalist objectives. Our Look-Ahead provides an outlook of the war […]

The European Commission’s endorsement for EU membership talks with Moldova and Ukraine signals a significant stride in Chișinău’s aspirations. President Sandu’s proactive discussions with key EU nations, including Denmark and the UK, further underscore Moldova’s commitment to European integration. The boost in electricity trade among ENTSO-E, Moldova, and Ukraine aims to fortify regional energy security […]