The deteriorating situation in Avdiivka has become Colonel General Oleksandr Syrsky’s inaugural challenge since being appointed Ukraine’s commander-in-chief (CIC) on 8FEB24. Latest battlefield intelligence suggests that Russian forces have severed the main supply route (MSR) for the Ukrainian defenders in Avdiivka on 13FEB. This move divides the urban area into two pockets: the Coke and […]
Novatek’s Ust-Luga Gas Complex in Leningrad oblast, Russia, came under drone attack on 21 January 2024. The strike was accurate and targeted a specific area of the Ust-Luga Gas Condensate Fractionation and Transshipment Complex. This resulted in significant damage facility damage with ripple effects for Novatek’s operations and business. By unlocking this assessment, you will […]
The Russian invasion of Ukraine enters 2024 with significant uncertainty and high stakes. Russia and Ukraine view 2024 as a waypoint in what is almost certainly a long war marked by intense attrition, limited territorial change, and perceived medium to long-term opportunities to achieve their maximalist objectives. Our Look-Ahead provides an outlook of the war […]
Ukrainian Brigadier General Serhiy Baranov’s recent confirmation of the operational status and ongoing improvements of Ukraine’s Hrim-2 missile presents a unique opportunity for foreign-local defense industry collaboration. Foreign defense companies can help Ukraine improve Hrim-2 and upscale production capacity while Kyiv retains sovereignty over how and when it seeks to employ it. HRIM-2 LIVES: OFFICIAL […]
The Taurus air-launched cruise missile (ALCM) remains a coveted asset for Ukraine, offering unique bridge-busting capabilities that Storm Shadow/SCALP EG and ATAMCS lack. However, Taurus’ strength is also its weakness, as Berlin fears the missile would be used to destroy the Kerch Bridge and escalate the conflict. Despite some claims, Taurus production capacity is not […]
Between 23 August and 22 September 2023, the Ukrainian Armed Forces executed a meticulously planned kinetic campaign against Russian positions in occupied Crimea. This campaign culminated with the sinking of two Russian warships at bay and the bombing of the Russian Black Sea Fleet headquarters (HQ) in Sevastopol. Ukraine’s kinetic operations in Crimea will likely […]
KEY JUDGEMENTS Russia’s missile and drone attacks against Reni and Izmail marked the first strikes on Ukraine’s Danube ports since the full-scale invasion began on 24 February 2022. The attacks are part of a new Russian campaign to degrade Ukraine’s ability to export agricultural goods and destroy grain stocks. They also seek to deter merchant […]
A group of Wagner mutineers is expected to relocate to Belarus under a deal brokered by Belarusian President Lukashenko between Russian President Putin and Wagner chief Prigozhin. The exact number of exiles remains uncertain, with estimates ranging from several hundred to 8,000. This move holds security implications for NATO and Ukraine, requiring close monitoring of […]
Kyiv’s upcoming counteroffensive, touted as one of the most anticipated military actions in modern history, is now imminent. The vast majority of Western weapons have reached Ukraine, the new brigades are complete, and the ground is now reliably settled to support the maneuver. If the past three weeks of “shaping operations” were not sufficiently indicative […]
For those following the conflict up close, it should come as no surprise that “unidentified” drones struck the Kremlin. We assess that the unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) attack on the Kremlin was conducted by Ukrainian Military Intelligence (HUR) and reject the theory of a “false flag” orchestrated by the Russian government. Since the beginning of […]
