As of March 25, 2025, negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, mediated by the Trump administration, remain unlikely to produce a peace settlement within the first 100 days of President Donald Trump’s second term or by Easter Sunday (April 20th). A limited-time ceasefire across the entire battlefield may ultimately be agreed upon by Ukraine and Russia, […]
Signs of infrastructure expansion in Ochamchire Bay, Russian-occupied Abkhazia, are emerging. While no major developments occurred at the pre-existing Russian FSB-Coast Guard base, new warehouses and cleared land in the adjacent area suggest potential expansion in connection to the Kremlin’s plans. Ochamchrie could serve as a reserve base for Russian warships displaced from occupied Crimea […]
Transnistria’s ‘Congress of Deputies’, the highest decision-making body in Moldova’s separatist region, proved to be of little to no significance. Although Moldova and Ukraine successfully anticipated that the congress would be inconsequential, international public opinion fell into the trap of anticipated escalation based on the ‘annexation’ scenario put forward by a Transnistrian oppositionist. The explicitly […]
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The deteriorating situation in Avdiivka has become Colonel General Oleksandr Syrsky’s inaugural challenge since being appointed Ukraine’s commander-in-chief (CIC) on 8FEB24. Latest battlefield intelligence suggests that Russian forces have severed the main supply route (MSR) for the Ukrainian defenders in Avdiivka on 13FEB. This move divides the urban area into two pockets: the Coke and […]
Novatek’s Ust-Luga Gas Complex in Leningrad oblast, Russia, came under drone attack on 21 January 2024. The strike was accurate and targeted a specific area of the Ust-Luga Gas Condensate Fractionation and Transshipment Complex. This resulted in significant damage facility damage with ripple effects for Novatek’s operations and business. By unlocking this assessment, you will […]
Iran has finalized a deal to acquire Su-35 fighter aircraft, the batch initially rejected by Egypt, from Russia, according to Iranian officials on 28 November 2023. Current data, up to 28OCT2023, shows 25 Su-35SE air superiority jets (AFIC/NATO reporting name: Flanker-E) still stationed at the Komsomolsk-on-Amur Aircraft Plant (KAAP) in Russia, with deliveries anticipated in […]
Between 23 August and 22 September 2023, the Ukrainian Armed Forces executed a meticulously planned kinetic campaign against Russian positions in occupied Crimea. This campaign culminated with the sinking of two Russian warships at bay and the bombing of the Russian Black Sea Fleet headquarters (HQ) in Sevastopol. Ukraine’s kinetic operations in Crimea will likely […]
KEY JUDGEMENTS Russia’s missile and drone attacks against Reni and Izmail marked the first strikes on Ukraine’s Danube ports since the full-scale invasion began on 24 February 2022. The attacks are part of a new Russian campaign to degrade Ukraine’s ability to export agricultural goods and destroy grain stocks. They also seek to deter merchant […]
KEY JUDGEMENTS I. The Russian military build-up around Ukraine is designed for combat operations and not a show of force (“bear scare”). Our estimates are based on the unprecedented scale of Russia’s military build-up, the force composition in terms of capabilities, credible logistics, and increased operations security. II. President Putin’s intentions remain unclear, but a […]
