The Suwałki Gap is NATO’s most vulnerable chokepoint — a narrow 40-mile land corridor linking Poland with the Baltic States, flanked by Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave and Belarus. Its loss would sever NATO’s land access to the Baltics, fracture Article 5 credibility, and reshape the Euro-Atlantic security order in Moscow’s favor.

Unlock this free Threatcast Report and gain intelligence on:

  • How Russia could attempt a fait accompli seizure of the Suwałki Gap following a “Zapad-20??” exercise.
  • Why NATO’s enhanced tripwire posture and mobilization timelines leave a window of vulnerability.
  • The promising role of Poland’s Eastern Shield, Baltic minefields, and civil preparedness in deterring or blunting an attack.
  • Indicators & Warnings (I&W) that would signal a Russian attack.
  • Geo-economic consequences for energy security, supply chains, and markets if the threatcast materializes. 
  • Actionable countermeasures to reinforce deterrence and prevent “buck fever” (decision-making paralysis) in crisis.

Mind the Gap: Threatcasting a Russian Attack on the Suwalki Gap

How Russia could attempt a fait accompli seizure of the Suwałki Gap in the 2025-2030 period.
Unlock

Send download link to:

I confirm that I have read and agree to the Privacy Policy.

Subscribe to get periodic notifications and exclusive content (We promise no spam!)

This is a Threatcast Report — a threat scenario-based intelligence product that explores high-impact, low-probability (Hi-Lo) contingencies. Unlike traditional forecasts, Threatcasts are not predictions; they are stress tests designed to reduce uncertainty, identify early-warning indicators, and prepare decision-makers for the unthinkable.

Tailored threatcasts and in-depth monitoring projects are available upon request.

This report is a demonstrative analysis prepared for public and educational purposes. It does not represent a final intelligence “end-product” or policy position.

Vlad Șutea
Founder & Lead OSINT Analyst

Founder of T-Intelligence. OSINT analyst & instructor, with experience in defense intelligence (private sector), armed conflicts, and geopolitical flashpoints.

Related intelligence:

Russia’s Evolving Shahed Drone Threat and How Ukraine Innovates Under Fire Russia’s New Offensive in Northeastern Ukraine: Objectives, Scenarios, & Possible Outcomes Zelenskyy’s Joker Card: Long Neptune, Deep Strikes, and Russian Energy Cease Fire! Assessing U.S. Efforts to Force a Russo-Ukrainian Peace