The Russian invasion of Ukraine enters 2024 with significant uncertainty and high stakes. Russia and Ukraine view 2024 as a waypoint in what is almost certainly a long war marked by intense attrition, limited territorial change, and perceived medium to long-term opportunities to achieve their maximalist objectives. Our Look-Ahead provides an outlook of the war […]
Iran has finalized a deal to acquire Su-35 fighter aircraft, the batch initially rejected by Egypt, from Russia, according to Iranian officials on 28 November 2023. Current data, up to 28OCT2023, shows 25 Su-35SE air superiority jets (AFIC/NATO reporting name: Flanker-E) still stationed at the Komsomolsk-on-Amur Aircraft Plant (KAAP) in Russia, with deliveries anticipated in […]
Ukrainian Brigadier General Serhiy Baranov’s recent confirmation of the operational status and ongoing improvements of Ukraine’s Hrim-2 missile presents a unique opportunity for foreign-local defense industry collaboration. Foreign defense companies can help Ukraine improve Hrim-2 and upscale production capacity while Kyiv retains sovereignty over how and when it seeks to employ it. HRIM-2 LIVES: OFFICIAL […]
The Taurus air-launched cruise missile (ALCM) remains a coveted asset for Ukraine, offering unique bridge-busting capabilities that Storm Shadow/SCALP EG and ATAMCS lack. However, Taurus’ strength is also its weakness, as Berlin fears the missile would be used to destroy the Kerch Bridge and escalate the conflict. Despite some claims, Taurus production capacity is not […]
The Moldova/Transnistria Situation Reports (SitReps) are a response to the intelligence obtained by Ukraine and Moldova indicating that Russia plans to overthrow the democratically elected government in Chișinău and maintain the threat of Transnistria high for Ukraine. Drawing from open-source information (OSINF), the newsletter will provide periodic updates on security-relevant developments and analysis. See previous […]
The Moldova/Transnistria Situation Reports (SitReps) are a response to the intelligence obtained by Ukraine and Moldova indicating that Russia plans to overthrow the democratically elected government in Chișinău and maintain the threat of Transnistria high for Ukraine. Drawing from open-source information (OSINF), the newsletter will provide periodic updates on security-relevant developments and analysis. See previous […]
KEY JUDGEMENTS Russia’s missile and drone attacks against Reni and Izmail marked the first strikes on Ukraine’s Danube ports since the full-scale invasion began on 24 February 2022. The attacks are part of a new Russian campaign to degrade Ukraine’s ability to export agricultural goods and destroy grain stocks. They also seek to deter merchant […]
A group of Wagner mutineers is expected to relocate to Belarus under a deal brokered by Belarusian President Lukashenko between Russian President Putin and Wagner chief Prigozhin. The exact number of exiles remains uncertain, with estimates ranging from several hundred to 8,000. This move holds security implications for NATO and Ukraine, requiring close monitoring of […]
The following analysis is an updated and revised version of our preliminary-battle damage assessment (P-BDA) released after very-high-resolution (VHR) satellite imagery of Saki Air Base surfaced online, on August 10. We assess that the explosions at Saki AB resulted from a Ukrainian attack and not a “work accident,” as described by Russian authorities. P-BDA “hot […]
Snake Island, or Serpents Island (Ostriv Zmiinyi in Ukrainian; Insula Serpilor in Romanian) is an islet off Ukraine’s southwestern coast and near the Danube Delta in the Black Sea. With a surface of 17 ha, the islet became a major flashpoint between the Ukrainian Operational Command-South and the Russian Navy, following the Russian seizure of […]
