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Moldova & Transnistria Security Update #11 (October)
Moldova & Transnistria Moldova/Transnistria tensions

Moldova & Transnistria Security Update #11 (October)

The Moldova/Transnistria Situation Reports (SitReps) are a response to the intelligence obtained by Ukraine and Moldova indicating that Russia plans to overthrow the democratically elected government in Chișinău and maintain...
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Moldova & Transnistria Security Update #10 (September)
Energy Geopolitical Risk Investments Moldova & Transnistria Moldova/Transnistria tensions

Moldova & Transnistria Security Update #10 (September)

The Moldova/Transnistria Situation Reports (SitReps) are a response to the intelligence obtained by Ukraine and Moldova indicating that Russia plans to overthrow the democratically elected government in Chișinău and maintain...
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30 Days of Storm: Ukraine’s Kinetic Campaign against Russian Forces in Crimea
Defense&Tech Russia Russian Invasion of Ukraine Ukraine

30 Days of Storm: Ukraine’s Kinetic Campaign against Russian Forces in Crimea

Between 23 August and 22 September 2023, the Ukrainian Armed Forces executed a meticulously planned kinetic campaign against Russian positions in occupied Crimea. This campaign culminated with the sinking of...
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Moldova & Transnistria Security Update #9 (August)
Geopolitical Risk Investments Moldova & Transnistria Moldova/Transnistria tensions

Moldova & Transnistria Security Update #9 (August)

The Moldova/Transnistria Situation Reports (SitReps) are a response to the intelligence obtained by Ukraine and Moldova indicating that Russia plans to overthrow the democratically elected government in Chișinău and maintain...
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China’s Escalating “Gray Zone” Tactics: The Interception of Philippine Coast Guard Supply Missions near the Second Thomas Shoal
China Geopolitical Risk Philippines Shipping South & East China Seas disputes

China’s Escalating “Gray Zone” Tactics: The Interception of Philippine Coast Guard Supply Missions near the Second Thomas Shoal

On 5 August 2023, two vessels of the Philippines Coast Guard (PCG) were blockaded by Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) cutters which attacked them with a water cannon. According to the...
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Karma Massacre: Responsibility Assessment
Africa

Karma Massacre: Responsibility Assessment

Approximately one hundred men in Burkinabé black military uniforms attacked Karma village in Burkina Faso’s Nord region, killing more than 130 people and displacing countless others on 20 April 2023....
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Russian Attacks on Ukraine’s Danube Ports Indicate Escalating Risk for Shipping
Agriculture Romania Russia Russian Invasion of Ukraine Shipping Ukraine

Russian Attacks on Ukraine’s Danube Ports Indicate Escalating Risk for Shipping

KEY JUDGEMENTS Russia’s missile and drone attacks against Reni and Izmail marked the first strikes on Ukraine’s Danube ports since the full-scale invasion began on 24 February 2022.  The attacks...
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Moldova & Transnistria Security Update #8 (July)
Geopolitical Risk Investments Moldova & Transnistria Moldova/Transnistria tensions

Moldova & Transnistria Security Update #8 (July)

The Moldova/Transnistria Situation Reports (SitReps) are a response to the intelligence obtained by Ukraine and Moldova indicating that Russia plans to overthrow the democratically elected government in Chișinău and maintain...
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Moldova & Transnistria Security Update #7 (June)
Geopolitical Risk Investments Moldova & Transnistria Moldova/Transnistria tensions

Moldova & Transnistria Security Update #7 (June)

The Moldova/Transnistria Situation Reports (SitReps) are a response to the intelligence obtained by Ukraine and Moldova indicating that Russia plans to overthrow the democratically elected government in Chișinău and maintain...
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“PMC Wagner” Mutineers Relocating to Belarus: Estimates and Risk
Belarus Geopolitical Risk Russian Invasion of Ukraine

“PMC Wagner” Mutineers Relocating to Belarus: Estimates and Risk

A group of Wagner mutineers is expected to relocate to Belarus under a deal brokered by Belarusian President Lukashenko between Russian President Putin and Wagner chief Prigozhin. The exact number...
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Moldova & Transnistria Security Update #6 (May)
Moldova & Transnistria

Moldova & Transnistria Security Update #6 (May)

The Moldova/Transnistria Situation Reports (SitReps) are a response to the latest intelligence that Russia plans to overthrow the democratically elected government in Chisinau and maintain the threat of Transnistria high...
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Ukraine’s Counteroffensive is Imminent
Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Ukraine’s Counteroffensive is Imminent

Kyiv’s upcoming counteroffensive, touted as one of the most anticipated military actions in modern history, is now imminent. The vast majority of Western weapons have reached Ukraine, the new brigades...
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Moldova & Transnistria Security Update #5
Moldova & Transnistria

Moldova & Transnistria Security Update #5

The Moldova/Transnistria Situation Reports (SitReps) are a response to the latest intelligence that Russia plans to overthrow the democratically elected government in Chisinau and maintain the threat of Transnistria high...
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“Deeper and Deeper:” UAVs Strike Moscow
Russian Invasion of Ukraine

“Deeper and Deeper:” UAVs Strike Moscow

For those following the conflict up close, it should come as no surprise that "unidentified" drones struck the Kremlin. We assess that the unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) attack on the...
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Operation Cigarette Butt: Ukraine’s Covert Strike on Saki Air Base
Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Operation Cigarette Butt: Ukraine’s Covert Strike on Saki Air Base

The following analysis is an updated and revised version of our preliminary-battle damage assessment (P-BDA) released after very-high-resolution (VHR) satellite imagery of Saki Air Base surfaced online, on August 10....
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Flashpoint Snake Island: Why Russia Wanted the “Rock” in the Black Sea
Cold War 2.0 Euro-Atlantic Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Flashpoint Snake Island: Why Russia Wanted the “Rock” in the Black Sea

Snake Island, or Serpents Island (Ostriv Zmiinyi in Ukrainian; Insula Serpilor in Romanian) is an islet off Ukraine's southwestern coast and near the Danube Delta in the Black Sea. With...
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Target Transnistria: Russia’s Maskirovka and Pathways to Escalation (Threatcast)
Moldova & Transnistria Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Target Transnistria: Russia’s Maskirovka and Pathways to Escalation (Threatcast)

KEY JUDGEMENTS  I. We assess that Russian intelligence staged the recent provocations in Transnistria as part of a military deception campaign (“maskirovka”). Russia aims to prevent Ukrainian forces in Odesa...
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Russian Mass-Casualty Attack on Civilians at Kramatorsk Train Station
Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Russian Mass-Casualty Attack on Civilians at Kramatorsk Train Station

A Russian missile attack on Kramatorsk train station in eastern Ukraine has killed at least 50 people, likely only civilians, and wounded 100 others, on 8 April 2022. Kramatorsk hosts...
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Defeated in Kyiv, Russia Downsizes War Aims to Donbas and Southern Ukraine
Cold War 2.0 Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Defeated in Kyiv, Russia Downsizes War Aims to Donbas and Southern Ukraine

Key Judgements I. Defeated by Ukrainian maneuver defenses and counter-attacks, Russian forces have withdrawn from northwest Kyiv, and are reducing their presence in Chernihiv province. Returned to their launch points...
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Russia Bombs Maternity Ward & Children’s Hospital in Mariupol As Part of Siege
Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Russia Bombs Maternity Ward & Children’s Hospital in Mariupol As Part of Siege

A medical complex in the southern city of Mariupol, Ukraine, has been destroyed in a reported airstrike on 9 March 2022, social media videos show. It is virtually certain that...
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