The Moldova/Transnistria Situation Reports (SitReps) are a response to the intelligence obtained by Ukraine and Moldova indicating that Russia plans to overthrow the democratically elected government in Chișinău and maintain...
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Archive
China’s Escalating “Gray Zone” Tactics: The Interception of Philippine Coast Guard Supply Missions near the Second Thomas Shoal
15 August 2023
On 5 August 2023, two vessels of the Philippines Coast Guard (PCG) were blockaded by Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) cutters which attacked them with a water cannon. According to the...
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Karma Massacre: Responsibility Assessment
10 August 2023
Approximately one hundred men in Burkinabé black military uniforms attacked Karma village in Burkina Faso’s Nord region, killing more than 130 people and displacing countless others on 20 April 2023....
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Russian Attacks on Ukraine’s Danube Ports Indicate Escalating Risk for Shipping
4 August 2023
KEY JUDGEMENTS Russia’s missile and drone attacks against Reni and Izmail marked the first strikes on Ukraine’s Danube ports since the full-scale invasion began on 24 February 2022. The attacks...
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Moldova & Transnistria Security Update #8 (July)
2 August 2023
The Moldova/Transnistria Situation Reports (SitReps) are a response to the intelligence obtained by Ukraine and Moldova indicating that Russia plans to overthrow the democratically elected government in Chișinău and maintain...
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Moldova & Transnistria Security Update #7 (June)
11 July 2023
The Moldova/Transnistria Situation Reports (SitReps) are a response to the intelligence obtained by Ukraine and Moldova indicating that Russia plans to overthrow the democratically elected government in Chișinău and maintain...
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“PMC Wagner” Mutineers Relocating to Belarus: Estimates and Risk
4 July 2023
A group of Wagner mutineers is expected to relocate to Belarus under a deal brokered by Belarusian President Lukashenko between Russian President Putin and Wagner chief Prigozhin. The exact number...
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Moldova & Transnistria Security Update #6 (May)
15 June 2023
The Moldova/Transnistria Situation Reports (SitReps) are a response to the latest intelligence that Russia plans to overthrow the democratically elected government in Chisinau and maintain the threat of Transnistria high...
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Ukraine’s Counteroffensive is Imminent
5 June 2023
Kyiv’s upcoming counteroffensive, touted as one of the most anticipated military actions in modern history, is now imminent. The vast majority of Western weapons have reached Ukraine, the new brigades...
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Moldova & Transnistria Security Update #5
24 May 2023
The Moldova/Transnistria Situation Reports (SitReps) are a response to the latest intelligence that Russia plans to overthrow the democratically elected government in Chisinau and maintain the threat of Transnistria high...
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“Deeper and Deeper:” UAVs Strike Moscow
23 May 2023
For those following the conflict up close, it should come as no surprise that "unidentified" drones struck the Kremlin. We assess that the unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) attack on the...
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Operation Cigarette Butt: Ukraine’s Covert Strike on Saki Air Base
15 August 2022
The following analysis is an updated and revised version of our preliminary-battle damage assessment (P-BDA) released after very-high-resolution (VHR) satellite imagery of Saki Air Base surfaced online, on August 10....
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Flashpoint Snake Island: Why Russia Wanted the “Rock” in the Black Sea
27 July 2022
Snake Island, or Serpents Island (Ostriv Zmiinyi in Ukrainian; Insula Serpilor in Romanian) is an islet off Ukraine's southwestern coast and near the Danube Delta in the Black Sea. With...
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Target Transnistria: Russia’s Maskirovka and Pathways to Escalation (Threatcast)
8 May 2022
KEY JUDGEMENTS I. We assess that Russian intelligence staged the recent provocations in Transnistria as part of a military deception campaign (“maskirovka”). Russia aims to prevent Ukrainian forces in Odesa...
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Russian Mass-Casualty Attack on Civilians at Kramatorsk Train Station
9 April 2022
A Russian missile attack on Kramatorsk train station in eastern Ukraine has killed at least 50 people, likely only civilians, and wounded 100 others, on 8 April 2022. Kramatorsk hosts...
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Defeated in Kyiv, Russia Downsizes War Aims to Donbas and Southern Ukraine
4 April 2022
Key Judgements I. Defeated by Ukrainian maneuver defenses and counter-attacks, Russian forces have withdrawn from northwest Kyiv, and are reducing their presence in Chernihiv province. Returned to their launch points...
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Russia Bombs Maternity Ward & Children’s Hospital in Mariupol As Part of Siege
10 March 2022
A medical complex in the southern city of Mariupol, Ukraine, has been destroyed in a reported airstrike on 9 March 2022, social media videos show. It is virtually certain that...
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Ukraine Repels Russia’s Initial Blitz (What’s Next?)
27 February 2022
Russia has failed to break through Ukrainian defenses in Kiyv and Kharkiv, despite successive airborne and armored assaults backed by artillery, since 24 February 2022. The Ukrainian military has significantly...
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Russia Invades Ukraine: First Day of War Through OSINT
24 February 2022
In the early hours of 24 February 2022, Russia commenced a series of pre-assault operations to soften Ukrainian defenses ahead of an all-out, multi-axis invasion, which is now in progress....
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Mother of All Bear Scares: Russia Amasses Forces for a Multi-Axis Attack on Ukraine
23 January 2022
KEY JUDGEMENTS I. The Russian military build-up around Ukraine is designed for combat operations and not a show of force (“bear scare”). Our estimates are based on the unprecedented scale...
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