As of March 25, 2025, negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, mediated by the Trump administration, remain unlikely to produce a peace settlement within the first 100 days of President Donald...
Read More
Archive
North Korean Intervention in Ukraine: Did Kim Jong-un Tip the Scales?
7 January 2025
This report assesses the impact of North Korean military aid and personnel deployments on the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. While military contributions from the Democratic Peoples’ Republic of Korea (DPRK)...
Read More
Russia’s Black Sea Activities: Ochamchire Bay in Abkhazia Shows Signs of Expansion (OS/GEOINT)
20 June 2024
Signs of infrastructure expansion in Ochamchire Bay, Russian-occupied Abkhazia, are emerging. While no major developments occurred at the pre-existing Russian FSB-Coast Guard base, new warehouses and cleared land in the...
Read More
Venezuela-Guyana War Risk: Threats to Merchant Shipping
19 April 2024
Venezuela continues to implement military and political measures in preparation to invade Guyana and annex the energy-rich Esequibo region. The vast majority of Esequibo's energy reserves are offshore which brings...
Read More
Defense Industry Energy Geopolitical Risk Investments Moldova & Transnistria Moldova/Transnistria tensions
Moldova/Transnistria Security SitRep (March 2024)
2 April 2024
In March 2024, the Republic of Moldova (including Transnistria) registered the following developments in its multi-sector security environment: Foreign Relations and European Integration Noteworthy developments from the Ministry of Foreign...
Read More
Why Romania wants Giurgiulesti International Free Port from EBRD
12 March 2024
Romania is in discussions with the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) to purchase the Giurgiulesti International Free Port (IFP) which is located in the Republic of Moldova. Romania's...
Read More
Defense Industry Energy Geopolitical Risk Investments Moldova & Transnistria Moldova/Transnistria tensions
Moldova/Transnistria Security SitRep (February 2024)
4 March 2024
In February 2024, the Republic of Moldova (including Transnistria) registered the following developments in its multi-sector security environment: Foreign Relations and European Integration Noteworthy developments from the Ministry of Foreign...
Read More
Transnistria’s Congress of Deputies: ‘Nothingburger’ with a side of PsyOps
1 March 2024
Transnistria’s 'Congress of Deputies', the highest decision-making body in Moldova's separatist region, proved to be of little to no significance. Although Moldova and Ukraine successfully anticipated that the congress would...
Read More
Arctic Rush China Critical Minerals Geopolitical Risk GIUK Gap Greenland Investments Mining Norway Russia Shipping Sweden United States
Arctic Rush: Unfreezing Geopolitical Opportunities
28 February 2024
The Arctic Circle is at the forefront of international geopolitical competition for shorter shipping routes, untapped oil & gas reserves, rare earth element & critical mineral deposits, and icebreaker shipbuilding...
Read More
Transnistria: Fears over Possible Annexation Request to Russia
23 February 2024
The so-called president of Moldova’s Transnistria breakaway region has called for a general congress of deputies– many fear the separatists will ask to join Russia, raising tensions. While under normal...
Read More
Transnistria: Signs of FPV Drone Adoption
21 February 2024
Transnistria's 'traffic police' incorporating first-person view (FPV) drones could signal the increasing adoption of a Ukraine war staple among the separatists’ ‘security and military forces’ as ordered by the Tiraspol...
Read More
Avdiivka: General Syrsky Faces ‘Hold or Withdraw’ Decision
14 February 2024
The deteriorating situation in Avdiivka has become Colonel General Oleksandr Syrsky’s inaugural challenge since being appointed Ukraine’s commander-in-chief (CIC) on 8FEB24. Latest battlefield intelligence suggests that Russian forces have severed...
Read More
Defense Industry Energy Geopolitical Risk Investments Moldova & Transnistria Moldova/Transnistria tensions
Moldova/Transnistria Security SitRep (January 2024)
5 February 2024
In January 2024, the Republic of Moldova (including Transnistria) registered the following developments in its multi-sector security environment: Foreign Relations and European Integration Noteworthy developments from the Ministry of Foreign...
Read More
Russia: Novatek’s Ust-Luga Gas Complex under Drone Attack (Damage and Effects)
25 January 2024
Novatek’s Ust-Luga Gas Complex in Leningrad oblast, Russia, came under drone attack on 21 January 2024. The strike was accurate and targeted a specific area of the Ust-Luga Gas Condensate...
Read More
Moldova & Transnistria Security Update #13 (December)
8 January 2024
Moldova and Transnistria undergo a security turning point in December 2023. Our December edition covers the end of the state of emergency, EU membership negotiations, defense modernization, and regional developments...
Read More
Russian Invasion of Ukraine: 2024 Look-Ahead
3 January 2024
The Russian invasion of Ukraine enters 2024 with significant uncertainty and high stakes. Russia and Ukraine view 2024 as a waypoint in what is almost certainly a long war marked...
Read More
Defense Industry Energy Geopolitical Risk Investments Moldova & Transnistria Moldova/Transnistria tensions
Moldova & Transnistria Security Update #12 (November)
4 December 2023
The European Commission's endorsement for EU membership talks with Moldova and Ukraine signals a significant stride in Chișinău's aspirations. President Sandu's proactive discussions with key EU nations, including Denmark and...
Read More
Russia/Iran Su-35 Deal Finalized: Fighter Jets Still in Komsomolsk-on-Amur
29 November 2023
Iran has finalized a deal to acquire Su-35 fighter aircraft, the batch initially rejected by Egypt, from Russia, according to Iranian officials on 28 November 2023. Current data, up to...
Read More
China in the Solomon Islands: Belt & Road Initiative Expands into the South Pacific
27 November 2023
The Solomon Islands is in the early stages of state capture by China. With its growing geopolitical influence in the Solomons, China is expanding the Belt & Road Initiative into...
Read More
Romania’s SHORAD/VSHORAD Tender: Requirements and Competition
24 November 2023
Romania issued a tender for short-range air defense/very-short-range air defense (SHORAD/VHSORAD) on 17 November 2023. The contract, valued at around $1.908 billion, is anticipated to attract bidders from the United...
Read More
