The Suwałki Gap is NATO’s most vulnerable chokepoint — a narrow 40-mile land corridor linking Poland with the Baltic States, flanked by Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave and Belarus. Its loss would...
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Archive
Russia’s Evolving Shahed Drone Threat and How Ukraine Innovates Under Fire
23 July 2025
Over the past year, Russia’s campaign of one-way attack unmanned aerial vehicle (OWA-UAV) strikes against Ukraine has evolved into a sustained saturation strategy designed to exhaust Ukraine’s air defenses, erode...
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Russia’s New Offensive in Northeastern Ukraine: Objectives, Scenarios, & Possible Outcomes
11 June 2025
This intelligence assessment evaluates the scope, objectives, and potential outcomes of Russia’s ongoing offensive in northeastern Ukraine (Kharkiv, Sumy, Chernihiv oblasts), launched in early 2025. Russia’s offensive comes amidst Ukraine’s...
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Zelenskyy’s Joker Card: Long Neptune, Deep Strikes, and Russian Energy
27 May 2025
Ukraine’s deep-strike campaign against Russia’s oil and gas sector has proven to be Kyiv’s joker card, forcing Putin to agree, although unconvincingly, to an energy ceasefire in March. The debut...
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Cease Fire! Assessing U.S. Efforts to Force a Russo-Ukrainian Peace
27 March 2025
As of March 25, 2025, negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, mediated by the Trump administration, remain unlikely to produce a peace settlement within the first 100 days of President Donald...
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North Korean Intervention in Ukraine: Did Kim Jong-un Tip the Scales?
7 January 2025
This report assesses the impact of North Korean military aid and personnel deployments on the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. While military contributions from the Democratic Peoples’ Republic of Korea (DPRK)...
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Russia’s Black Sea Activities: Ochamchire Bay in Abkhazia Shows Signs of Expansion (OS/GEOINT)
20 June 2024
Signs of infrastructure expansion in Ochamchire Bay, Russian-occupied Abkhazia, are emerging. While no major developments occurred at the pre-existing Russian FSB-Coast Guard base, new warehouses and cleared land in the...
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Defense Industry Energy Geopolitical Risk Investments Moldova & Transnistria Moldova/Transnistria tensions
Moldova/Transnistria Security SitRep (March 2024)
2 April 2024
In March 2024, the Republic of Moldova (including Transnistria) registered the following developments in its multi-sector security environment: Foreign Relations and European Integration Noteworthy developments from the Ministry of Foreign...
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Defense Industry Energy Geopolitical Risk Investments Moldova & Transnistria Moldova/Transnistria tensions
Moldova/Transnistria Security SitRep (February 2024)
4 March 2024
In February 2024, the Republic of Moldova (including Transnistria) registered the following developments in its multi-sector security environment: Foreign Relations and European Integration Noteworthy developments from the Ministry of Foreign...
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Transnistria’s Congress of Deputies: ‘Nothingburger’ with a side of PsyOps
1 March 2024
Transnistria’s 'Congress of Deputies', the highest decision-making body in Moldova's separatist region, proved to be of little to no significance. Although Moldova and Ukraine successfully anticipated that the congress would...
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Arctic Rush China Critical Minerals Geopolitical Risk GIUK Gap Greenland Investments Mining Norway Russia Shipping Sweden United States
Arctic Rush: Unfreezing Geopolitical Opportunities
28 February 2024
The Arctic Circle is at the forefront of international geopolitical competition for shorter shipping routes, untapped oil & gas reserves, rare earth element & critical mineral deposits, and icebreaker shipbuilding...
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Transnistria: Fears over Possible Annexation Request to Russia
23 February 2024
The so-called president of Moldova’s Transnistria breakaway region has called for a general congress of deputies– many fear the separatists will ask to join Russia, raising tensions. While under normal...
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Transnistria: Signs of FPV Drone Adoption
21 February 2024
Transnistria's 'traffic police' incorporating first-person view (FPV) drones could signal the increasing adoption of a Ukraine war staple among the separatists’ ‘security and military forces’ as ordered by the Tiraspol...
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Avdiivka: General Syrsky Faces ‘Hold or Withdraw’ Decision
14 February 2024
The deteriorating situation in Avdiivka has become Colonel General Oleksandr Syrsky’s inaugural challenge since being appointed Ukraine’s commander-in-chief (CIC) on 8FEB24. Latest battlefield intelligence suggests that Russian forces have severed...
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Defense Industry Energy Geopolitical Risk Investments Moldova & Transnistria Moldova/Transnistria tensions
Moldova/Transnistria Security SitRep (January 2024)
5 February 2024
In January 2024, the Republic of Moldova (including Transnistria) registered the following developments in its multi-sector security environment: Foreign Relations and European Integration Noteworthy developments from the Ministry of Foreign...
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Russia: Novatek’s Ust-Luga Gas Complex under Drone Attack (Damage and Effects)
25 January 2024
Novatek’s Ust-Luga Gas Complex in Leningrad oblast, Russia, came under drone attack on 21 January 2024. The strike was accurate and targeted a specific area of the Ust-Luga Gas Condensate...
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Moldova & Transnistria Security Update #13 (December)
8 January 2024
Moldova and Transnistria undergo a security turning point in December 2023. Our December edition covers the end of the state of emergency, EU membership negotiations, defense modernization, and regional developments...
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Russian Invasion of Ukraine: 2024 Look-Ahead
3 January 2024
The Russian invasion of Ukraine enters 2024 with significant uncertainty and high stakes. Russia and Ukraine view 2024 as a waypoint in what is almost certainly a long war marked...
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Defense Industry Energy Geopolitical Risk Investments Moldova & Transnistria Moldova/Transnistria tensions
Moldova & Transnistria Security Update #12 (November)
4 December 2023
The European Commission's endorsement for EU membership talks with Moldova and Ukraine signals a significant stride in Chișinău's aspirations. President Sandu's proactive discussions with key EU nations, including Denmark and...
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