The Russian invasion of Ukraine enters 2024 with significant uncertainty and high stakes. Russia and Ukraine view 2024 as a waypoint in what is almost certainly a long war marked by intense attrition, limited territorial change, and perceived medium to long-term opportunities to achieve their maximalist objectives. Our Look-Ahead provides an outlook of the war […]
The European Commission’s endorsement for EU membership talks with Moldova and Ukraine signals a significant stride in Chișinău’s aspirations. President Sandu’s proactive discussions with key EU nations, including Denmark and the UK, further underscore Moldova’s commitment to European integration. The boost in electricity trade among ENTSO-E, Moldova, and Ukraine aims to fortify regional energy security […]
Ukrainian Brigadier General Serhiy Baranov’s recent confirmation of the operational status and ongoing improvements of Ukraine’s Hrim-2 missile presents a unique opportunity for foreign-local defense industry collaboration. Foreign defense companies can help Ukraine improve Hrim-2 and upscale production capacity while Kyiv retains sovereignty over how and when it seeks to employ it. HRIM-2 LIVES: OFFICIAL […]
The Taurus air-launched cruise missile (ALCM) remains a coveted asset for Ukraine, offering unique bridge-busting capabilities that Storm Shadow/SCALP EG and ATAMCS lack. However, Taurus’ strength is also its weakness, as Berlin fears the missile would be used to destroy the Kerch Bridge and escalate the conflict. Despite some claims, Taurus production capacity is not […]
The Moldova/Transnistria Situation Reports (SitReps) are a response to the intelligence obtained by Ukraine and Moldova indicating that Russia plans to overthrow the democratically elected government in Chișinău and maintain the threat of Transnistria high for Ukraine. Drawing from open-source information (OSINF), the newsletter will provide periodic updates on security-relevant developments and analysis. See previous […]
The Moldova/Transnistria Situation Reports (SitReps) are a response to the intelligence obtained by Ukraine and Moldova indicating that Russia plans to overthrow the democratically elected government in Chișinău and maintain the threat of Transnistria high for Ukraine. Drawing from open-source information (OSINF), the newsletter will provide periodic updates on security-relevant developments and analysis. See previous […]
Between 23 August and 22 September 2023, the Ukrainian Armed Forces executed a meticulously planned kinetic campaign against Russian positions in occupied Crimea. This campaign culminated with the sinking of two Russian warships at bay and the bombing of the Russian Black Sea Fleet headquarters (HQ) in Sevastopol. Ukraine’s kinetic operations in Crimea will likely […]
The Moldova/Transnistria Situation Reports (SitReps) are a response to the intelligence obtained by Ukraine and Moldova indicating that Russia plans to overthrow the democratically elected government in Chișinău and maintain the threat of Transnistria high for Ukraine. Drawing from open-source information (OSINF), the newsletter will provide periodic updates on security-relevant developments and analysis. See previous […]
On 5 August 2023, two vessels of the Philippines Coast Guard (PCG) were blockaded by Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) cutters which attacked them with a water cannon. According to the Philippine Armed Forces, the vessels were attempting a “routine troop rotation and resupply mission” to the Second Thomas Shoal (Ayungin Shoal) in the Spratly Islands […]
KEY JUDGEMENTS Russia’s missile and drone attacks against Reni and Izmail marked the first strikes on Ukraine’s Danube ports since the full-scale invasion began on 24 February 2022. The attacks are part of a new Russian campaign to degrade Ukraine’s ability to export agricultural goods and destroy grain stocks. They also seek to deter merchant […]
