The Suwałki Gap is NATO’s most vulnerable chokepoint — a narrow 40-mile land corridor linking Poland with the Baltic States, flanked by Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave and Belarus. Its loss would sever NATO’s land access to the Baltics, fracture Article 5 credibility, and reshape the Euro-Atlantic security order in Moscow’s favor. Unlock this free Threatcast Report […]
Over the past year, Russia’s campaign of one-way attack unmanned aerial vehicle (OWA-UAV) strikes against Ukraine has evolved into a sustained saturation strategy designed to exhaust Ukraine’s air defenses, erode civilian morale, and destroy key military, energy, and civilian targets. On July 9th, Russia launched its most intense assault to date, unleashing a record-setting wave […]
This intelligence assessment evaluates the scope, objectives, and potential outcomes of Russia’s ongoing offensive in northeastern Ukraine (Kharkiv, Sumy, Chernihiv oblasts), launched in early 2025. Russia’s offensive comes amidst Ukraine’s highly successful Operation Spiderweb, a coordinated stand-in drone attack on five Russian strategic air bases, which damaged at least 23 aircraft, including bombers responsible for firing […]
Ukraine’s deep-strike campaign against Russia’s oil and gas sector has proven to be Kyiv’s joker card, forcing Putin to agree, although unconvincingly, to an energy ceasefire in March. The debut of the Long Neptune land attack cruise missile in May 2025 against the Tuapse oil refinery, destroying 20,000 tons of gasoline, marked a significant increase […]
As of March 25, 2025, negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, mediated by the Trump administration, remain unlikely to produce a peace settlement within the first 100 days of President Donald Trump’s second term or by Easter Sunday (April 20th). A limited-time ceasefire across the entire battlefield may ultimately be agreed upon by Ukraine and Russia, […]
Signs of infrastructure expansion in Ochamchire Bay, Russian-occupied Abkhazia, are emerging. While no major developments occurred at the pre-existing Russian FSB-Coast Guard base, new warehouses and cleared land in the adjacent area suggest potential expansion in connection to the Kremlin’s plans. Ochamchrie could serve as a reserve base for Russian warships displaced from occupied Crimea […]
Transnistria’s ‘Congress of Deputies’, the highest decision-making body in Moldova’s separatist region, proved to be of little to no significance. Although Moldova and Ukraine successfully anticipated that the congress would be inconsequential, international public opinion fell into the trap of anticipated escalation based on the ‘annexation’ scenario put forward by a Transnistrian oppositionist. The explicitly […]
The Arctic Circle is at the forefront of international geopolitical competition for shorter shipping routes, untapped oil & gas reserves, rare earth element & critical mineral deposits, and icebreaker shipbuilding and services. Unlock this free Executive Report and gain intelligence on: the global maritime shortcut offered by Arctic routes, including the Northern Sea Route, the […]
The deteriorating situation in Avdiivka has become Colonel General Oleksandr Syrsky’s inaugural challenge since being appointed Ukraine’s commander-in-chief (CIC) on 8FEB24. Latest battlefield intelligence suggests that Russian forces have severed the main supply route (MSR) for the Ukrainian defenders in Avdiivka on 13FEB. This move divides the urban area into two pockets: the Coke and […]
Novatek’s Ust-Luga Gas Complex in Leningrad oblast, Russia, came under drone attack on 21 January 2024. The strike was accurate and targeted a specific area of the Ust-Luga Gas Condensate Fractionation and Transshipment Complex. This resulted in significant damage facility damage with ripple effects for Novatek’s operations and business. By unlocking this assessment, you will […]
