Over the past year, Russia’s campaign of one-way attack unmanned aerial vehicle (OWA-UAV) strikes against Ukraine has evolved into a sustained saturation strategy designed to exhaust Ukraine’s air defenses, erode civilian morale, and destroy key military, energy, and civilian targets. On July 9th, Russia launched its most intense assault to date, unleashing a record-setting wave […]
This intelligence assessment evaluates the scope, objectives, and potential outcomes of Russia’s ongoing offensive in northeastern Ukraine (Kharkiv, Sumy, Chernihiv oblasts), launched in early 2025. Russia’s offensive comes amidst Ukraine’s highly successful Operation Spiderweb, a coordinated stand-in drone attack on five Russian strategic air bases, which damaged at least 23 aircraft, including bombers responsible for firing […]
As of March 25, 2025, negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, mediated by the Trump administration, remain unlikely to produce a peace settlement within the first 100 days of President Donald Trump’s second term or by Easter Sunday (April 20th). A limited-time ceasefire across the entire battlefield may ultimately be agreed upon by Ukraine and Russia, […]
This report assesses the impact of North Korean military aid and personnel deployments on the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. While military contributions from the Democratic Peoples’ Republic of Korea (DPRK) have not altered the course of the war, they have provided tangible support to Russian forces. The deployment of infantry units, primarily used as expendable […]
Signs of infrastructure expansion in Ochamchire Bay, Russian-occupied Abkhazia, are emerging. While no major developments occurred at the pre-existing Russian FSB-Coast Guard base, new warehouses and cleared land in the adjacent area suggest potential expansion in connection to the Kremlin’s plans. Ochamchrie could serve as a reserve base for Russian warships displaced from occupied Crimea […]
The deteriorating situation in Avdiivka has become Colonel General Oleksandr Syrsky’s inaugural challenge since being appointed Ukraine’s commander-in-chief (CIC) on 8FEB24. Latest battlefield intelligence suggests that Russian forces have severed the main supply route (MSR) for the Ukrainian defenders in Avdiivka on 13FEB. This move divides the urban area into two pockets: the Coke and […]
Novatek’s Ust-Luga Gas Complex in Leningrad oblast, Russia, came under drone attack on 21 January 2024. The strike was accurate and targeted a specific area of the Ust-Luga Gas Condensate Fractionation and Transshipment Complex. This resulted in significant damage facility damage with ripple effects for Novatek’s operations and business. By unlocking this assessment, you will […]
The Russian invasion of Ukraine enters 2024 with significant uncertainty and high stakes. Russia and Ukraine view 2024 as a waypoint in what is almost certainly a long war marked by intense attrition, limited territorial change, and perceived medium to long-term opportunities to achieve their maximalist objectives. Our Look-Ahead provides an outlook of the war […]
Ukrainian Brigadier General Serhiy Baranov’s recent confirmation of the operational status and ongoing improvements of Ukraine’s Hrim-2 missile presents a unique opportunity for foreign-local defense industry collaboration. Foreign defense companies can help Ukraine improve Hrim-2 and upscale production capacity while Kyiv retains sovereignty over how and when it seeks to employ it. HRIM-2 LIVES: OFFICIAL […]
The Taurus air-launched cruise missile (ALCM) remains a coveted asset for Ukraine, offering unique bridge-busting capabilities that Storm Shadow/SCALP EG and ATAMCS lack. However, Taurus’ strength is also its weakness, as Berlin fears the missile would be used to destroy the Kerch Bridge and escalate the conflict. Despite some claims, Taurus production capacity is not […]
