Signs of infrastructure expansion in Ochamchire Bay, Russian-occupied Abkhazia, are emerging. While no major developments occurred at the pre-existing Russian FSB-Coast Guard base, new warehouses and cleared land in the adjacent area suggest potential expansion in connection to the Kremlin’s plans. Ochamchrie could serve as a reserve base for Russian warships displaced from occupied Crimea […]
Venezuela continues to implement military and political measures in preparation to invade Guyana and annex the energy-rich Esequibo region. The vast majority of Esequibo’s energy reserves are offshore which brings the threat of war to the sea. Regional mediation efforts are underway to de-escalate tensions with Colombia, Brazil, and the U.S., facilitating bilateral talks. However, […]
Novatek’s Ust-Luga Gas Complex in Leningrad oblast, Russia, came under drone attack on 21 January 2024. The strike was accurate and targeted a specific area of the Ust-Luga Gas Condensate Fractionation and Transshipment Complex. This resulted in significant damage facility damage with ripple effects for Novatek’s operations and business. By unlocking this assessment, you will […]
The Russian invasion of Ukraine enters 2024 with significant uncertainty and high stakes. Russia and Ukraine view 2024 as a waypoint in what is almost certainly a long war marked by intense attrition, limited territorial change, and perceived medium to long-term opportunities to achieve their maximalist objectives. Our Look-Ahead provides an outlook of the war […]
KEY JUDGEMENTS I. The Russian military build-up around Ukraine is designed for combat operations and not a show of force (“bear scare”). Our estimates are based on the unprecedented scale of Russia’s military build-up, the force composition in terms of capabilities, credible logistics, and increased operations security. II. President Putin’s intentions remain unclear, but a […]
