On 5 August 2023, two vessels of the Philippines Coast Guard (PCG) were blockaded by Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) cutters which attacked them with a water cannon. According to the Philippine Armed Forces, the vessels were attempting a “routine troop rotation and resupply mission” to the Second Thomas Shoal (Ayungin Shoal) in the Spratly Islands […]
Approximately one hundred men in Burkinabé black military uniforms attacked Karma village in Burkina Faso’s Nord region, killing more than 130 people and displacing countless others on 20 April 2023. In the days following the incident, three main narratives regarding responsibility and motive for the attack have been gaining traction. Leveraging Open Source Intelligence (OSINT), […]
KEY JUDGEMENTS Russia’s missile and drone attacks against Reni and Izmail marked the first strikes on Ukraine’s Danube ports since the full-scale invasion began on 24 February 2022. The attacks are part of a new Russian campaign to degrade Ukraine’s ability to export agricultural goods and destroy grain stocks. They also seek to deter merchant […]
The Moldova/Transnistria Situation Reports (SitReps) are a response to the intelligence obtained by Ukraine and Moldova indicating that Russia plans to overthrow the democratically elected government in Chișinău and maintain the threat of Transnistria high for Ukraine. Drawing from open-source information (OSINF), the newsletter will provide periodic updates on security-relevant developments and analysis. See previous […]
