1. Eleven Russian Su-24 tactical bombers (NATO reporting name: “Fencer”) conducted a simulated air attack on a Globus II radar station in Vardø (Norway) on February 14, 2018. The information...
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Archive
Russian “Kinzhal” Hypersonic Missile and MiG31Ks still at Flight Test Center (IMINT)
12 February 2019
1. Satellite imagery shows several Kh-47 “Kinzhal” hypersonic aeroballistic missiles (NATO reporting name unavailable) next to Russian Aerospace Forces (RuAF) MiG-31K fighter jets (NATO reporting name: “Foxhound”) on the apron...
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Airborne ISR over Transnistria Monitors Russian Drills
11 February 2019
A Beech 200T (BE20) Super King Air aircraft outbound from Constanta (Romania) is currently flying Intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) sorties near the Russia-backed separatist republic of Transnistria (Moldova). The 200T...
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IS-K Diverted from Nangarhar Province, Takes Korengal Valley from Taliban (COIN/OPS-BRIEF)
7 February 2019
As key IS-K territories are under pressure by the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF) and the rival Taliban, the group is seeking to capture new high-ground sanctuaries on...
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Israeli/ U.S. airborne SIGINT on station for High-Value TEHRAN flight
4 February 2019
1. At least two U.S. Air Force Boeing signals intelligence aircraft (SIGNT) - Boeing RC-135V (callsign: TIMEX21) and RC-135U (EXTRO21) - conducted SIGINT collection sorties over the Eastern Mediterranean between...
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USAF F-22A Raptors Could Ground Venezuela’s Su-30MK2s and Establish No-Fly Zone
1 February 2019
The following analysis is neither news nor a forecast, but a purely hypothetical assessment. (a) If the situation in Venezuela escalates and Russia moves forward with its plans to establish...
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Forensic Video Analysis: Syrian Air Defense Unit Abandoned Pantsir S-1 under Israeli IAI Harop Fire
29 January 2019
During a raid in the night of January 20th 2019, the Israeli Air Force (IAF) prosecuted Iranian and Syrian ground targets in southern Syria. The operation included both ground attack...
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Russian Mercenaries Land in Venezuela to Protect Maduro: A Wagner Job?
28 January 2019
According to an exclusive report by Reuters, a group of up to 400 Russian private contractors arrived in Venezuela last week. The mercenaries will provide protection for President Nicolas Maduro,...
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Israel’s Christmas Raid in Syria: Target Assessment and Russian Reaction
30 December 2018
In the night of December 25th, The Israeli Air Force (IAF) delivered its first clandestine strike on Syrian targets after President Trump announced the withdrawal of U.S. troops. As assessed...
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Consequences of the U.S. Troop Withdrawal from Syria
22 December 2018
President Trump has announced a swift withdrawal of the 2,200 U.S. troops active in northeastern Syria, after claiming victory over Da’esh. The troops largely consist of special operations units, special...
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The Big Picture Behind Israel’s Operation Northern Shield
16 December 2018
1. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) have initiated Operation Northern Shield to identify and destroy Hezbollah cross-border tunnels in Northern Israel. At the moment, the IDF is operating exclusively on...
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The Ayatollah’s Shield: SAM Deployments and Capabilities of the Iranian Air Defenses (IMINT)
5 December 2018
1. Over the last years, Iran has visibly improved its air defense (AD) systems by phasing in modern indigenous surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems. The Iranian SAM deployments primarily safeguard the...
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Immediate Measures to Protect Ukraine’s Navy: The Harpoon Solution
27 November 2018
1. Russia's Kerch blockade (23 November 2018) is a limited operation that advances Russian sea command objectives in Black Sea. The Ukrainian Navy, now contained to Odessa as the remaining...
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Why Romania’s Defense Procurement Matters for NATO (and Should Worry Russia)
9 October 2018
In 2017, Romania initiated a visionary defence procurement program that will reinforce NATO’s Eastern flank and make the Romanian military a leading force in the Black Sea by the early 2020s....
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U.S. on Alert as Idlib Offensive is Imminent: Threat of Chemical Attacks?
30 August 2018
(1) The White House and the U.S. Department of Defense are closely monitoring the situation in the greater Idlib region. Over the past days, the Bashar al-Assad regime has continued...
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Murder of Journalists Exposes Russian Presence in the Central African Republic
8 August 2018
(1) On July 31, 2018, three Russian journalists were reported dead near Sibut, Central African Republic (CAR). Kirill Radchenko, Alexadner Rastorguyev and Orkhan Dzhemal were travelling between Sibut and Kaga...
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Operation Nightfall: Israel’s Ultimate Strike Against Iran in Syria
15 July 2018
Creative Threatcasting Scenario (CTS) - CTS is a strategic foresight method, inspired by the work of the West Point Military Academy’s Threatcasting Lab. Based on current events and trend analysis,...
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Israel Shadow-Raids Syria: Preempting Iranian Retaliation (an OSINT P-BDA)
1 May 2018
Preliminary - Battle Damage Assessment (P-BDA) – On April 29, 2018, 2230 local time, a round of unclaimed military strikes pounded locations jointly operated by the Bashar al-Assad regime and...
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The Syria Strikes: Forecast Reflection and Damage Report of the Joint Air and Naval Operations
18 April 2018
AFTER-ACTION REPORT - At 4:20 Damascus time, April 14, 2018, a joint Air and Naval operation of the United States of America (USA), Republic of France and the United Kingdom...
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Starve, Surrender or Die: Eastern Damascus to Collapse
22 February 2018
Urgent Briefing (4 min read) - A small pocket of land in eastern Damascus (also known as "Eastern Ghouta" is now the scene of the newest humanitarian catastrophy and intense military assault...
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