Category: CT/ COIN

Road to Raqqa: Are we there yet?

INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS – The Euphrates corridor, as any waterway in the Middle East (and not only) has been a catalyst for urban settlement, agriculture industry and energy development. Crossing Syria…

INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS – The Euphrates corridor, as any waterway in the Middle East (and not only) has been a catalyst for urban settlement, agriculture industry and energy development. Crossing Syria from its north-western corner in Aleppo governorate all the way down to Iraq’s Anbar region, the Euphrates River has been used by ISIS as a blood vein to spread as a tumor in a ravished body. Through its road to Iraq, the Euphrates also crosses the sparsely populated but oil-rich region of Deir-Ezzor; it’s importance being critical for trade, exploitation and transport optimization. Moreover, capitalizing on the strategic importance of the river and its surroundings, ISIS has made its self proclaimed-capital in Raqqa since 2014 – after it ousted the Free Syrian Army and Jabhat al-Nusra that initially liberated it in June 2013 from the Syrian Arab Army, following the escalation of the Revolution into the Civil War.

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Al-Bab Liberated: What’s next? (VIDEO)

VIDEO BRIEFING – The strategic city of Al-Bab has been liberated by the Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) local allies from the “islamic state” (ISIS)…

VIDEO BRIEFING – The strategic city of Al-Bab has been liberated by the Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) local allies from the “islamic state” (ISIS) occupation. The battle is in the context of Operation Euphrates Shield launched by Turkey in late-August 2016 in northern Syria, with the strategic purpose of clearing ISIS out of the border, preventing the Kurdish YPG and the SDF from uniting the cantons and to maintain a leverage against Bashar Assad’s regime. The operational objectives of the battle of al-Bab was the city itself. Taking into consideration Syria’s road infrastructure, al-Bab is a logistical crossroads between the Syrian Arab Army-held (SAA) Aleppo city (west), YPG/SDF-held Manbij (east), ISIS between the lakes corridor (south) and the Turkish border and the Syrian bordering city of Al-Rai (just 35 km north). It was imperative in order to seal the deal of a buffer zone in northern Aleppo governorate. The battle for al-Bab began in November 2016 and ended in February 7th 2017 – lasting 104 days.

Check out the video briefing for maps and battlefield footage + voice commentary of the battle. Moreover, it remains the question of where to next? The Kurdish-held Manbij? Or ISIS self-proclaimed “capital” of Raqqa?

Battle of al-Bab: a story through maps

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Objective Raqqa: Actors, Strategies and Black Swans

SITUATION REPORT – The following assessment outlines the Turkish proposals for a Raqqa offensive, made by Akar, the Turkish Joint Chief of Staff to Dunford, the American counter-part. This SitRep…

SITUATION REPORT – The following assessment outlines the Turkish proposals for a Raqqa offensive, made by Akar, the Turkish Joint Chief of Staff to Dunford, the American counter-part. This SitRep contextualizes the situation in Raqqa Governorate and also clarifies the already ongoing “Wrath of the Euphrates” Operation spearheaded by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the Kurdish militia, YPG. In addition, this assessment preemptively estimates potential “black swan”-type of scenarios that could occur from the Syrian, Israeli or Kurdish camp.

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Bizarre move in Deir Ezzor

INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING – The Department of Defense confirms that the United States have engaged ISIS targets around Deir Ezzor/ Dayr Az Zawr on 18th of Januariy 2017. Why this particular…

INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING – The Department of Defense confirms that the United States have engaged ISIS targets around Deir Ezzor/ Dayr Az Zawr on 18th of Januariy 2017. Why this particular news should raise questions? Because Deir Ezzor has become the scene of a fierce battle between the local Syrian Arab Army (SAA) 137th and 57th Brigades and the terror group’s forces that have surrounded the city since early 2015. The 120,000 civilian still living in the city risk a humanitarian crisis. Therefore the United States have joined, even if for some isolated strikes, Russia in aiding the Regime’s forces. In other news, incoming POTUS, Donald J. Trump has been invited by Russia and Turkey to take part in the Astana peace talks on Syria.

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Objective Raqqa: the Wrath of Euphrates

The SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces) have officially announced that they’ve began an operation with the objective of liberating ISIL’s self-declared capital of Raqqa. The press conference held by the multi-ethnic…

The SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces) have officially announced that they’ve began an operation with the objective of liberating ISIL’s self-declared capital of Raqqa. The press conference held by the multi-ethnic group also mentioned that it urges Turkey to “stay out of Syrian affairs” and that a deal was struck between the SDF and the US to keep Turkey out of the operation titled “Wrath of the Euphrates”. The SDF also mentions that it strong cooperation with assets inside Raqqa and that civilian safety is a top priority.

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Road to Mosul: The only easy day was… yesterday (Video Briefing)

The hottest topic of the moment in the Middle East. The Iraqi Federal Forces, Kurdish Pashmerga and US-led Coalition are now spearheading towards ISIS last stronghold in Iraq: Mosul. Learn…

The hottest topic of the moment in the Middle East. The Iraqi Federal Forces, Kurdish Pashmerga and US-led Coalition are now spearheading towards ISIS last stronghold in Iraq: Mosul. Learn how they’ve got here and what information do we have about the terror group’s activity and movements in the city. Will they retreat for a last stand in Raqqa or will they held their ground in Mosul?

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Road to Mosul: Iraq in Review

The Islamic State organization has been on the losing side for the last year in Syria and Iraq. Pentagon estimated in August that over 25,000 ISIS operators have been killed…

The Islamic State organization has been on the losing side for the last year in Syria and Iraq. Pentagon estimated in August that over 25,000 ISIS operators have been killed in the last 11 months, with additional estimate of 20,000 killed in the year before. General MacFarland said estimates for the overall remaining strength of ISIS vary from about 15,000 to 30,000 but said the jihadists are having increasing difficulties replenishing their ranks. Besides heavy casualties, the big losses were also accounted as territory, funds, maneuverability and oil industry.

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Mission Accomplished: Border Security à la Ankara

The following is an operational review focused on Operation Euphrates Shield, launched, coordinated by the Turkish Armed Forces and spearheaded by the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and allies. Preface On…

The following is an operational review focused on Operation Euphrates Shield, launched, coordinated by the Turkish Armed Forces and spearheaded by the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and allies.

Preface

On 24th July 2016, limited Turkish tanks assets alongside Special Operators have passed the border into Syria, also assisting hundreds of Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebels to liberate the Syrian border city of Jarabulus (Operation Euphrates Shield). Located in NE Aleppo Governorate, on the north-eastern banks of the Syrian Euphrates river, the city has been under Da’esh (ISIS) control for over 2 years. Besides the internal security threat posed by Da’esh a more prioritized liability is presented by the PKK that operates inside Turkey since the 80’s and its Allies in Syria and Iraq. The PYD political groups from northern Syria has established military wings – YPG/ YPJ – since 2013 and are leading the US-backed multi-ethnic military organization Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Recent success of this group, lead and populated 60% by Kurdish forces, was translate on the ground by territorial advancements in Manbij and intentions towards Al-Bab and Jarabulus; the later city being right at the Turkish border. After this developments, Ankara has threatened and acted upon it’s words:

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Tango Down: Major Da’esh leader killed

Da’esh said on Tuesday, August 30th that one of its most prominent and longest-serving leaders was killed in what appeared to be an American air strike in Syria, depriving the…

Da’esh said on Tuesday, August 30th that one of its most prominent and longest-serving leaders was killed in what appeared to be an American air strike in Syria, depriving the militant group of the man in charge of directing attacks overseas. A U.S. defense official told Reuters the United States targeted Abu Muhammad al-Adnani in a Tuesday strike on a vehicle traveling in the Syrian town of al-Bab. The official stopped short of confirming Adnani’s death, however.

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Towards an Ankara-Damascus endgame in Syria?

The recent developments in northern Syria have reconfigured again the chessboard of the Syrian Civil War. Turks have crossed the border in Jarabulus alongside FSA groups to free the city…

The recent developments in northern Syria have reconfigured again the chessboard of the Syrian Civil War. Turks have crossed the border in Jarabulus alongside FSA groups to free the city from Da’esh, and then extended its effort towards ousting the YPG, and even Kurdish elements from SDF, towards east of Euphrates; the mentioned groups also planned to free Jarabulus from ISIS thereby extending Kurdish land grab to the Turkish border – from Ankara’s perspective. The US, who was believed to be in the middle of a fall out with Ankara, has not only supported the Euphrates Shield Operation in Jarabulus, but the White House publicly threatened that if the Kurds don’t retreat to the other side of the river, they will lose US support[1]. (VIDEO Briefing on the Turkish invasion in Syria here)

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