Conflict. Security. Defense.
Cold War 2.0Ex-Soviet

Target Transnistria: Russia’s Maskirovka and Pathways to Escalation (Threatcast)

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KEY JUDGEMENTS  I. We assess that Russian intelligence staged the recent provocations in Transnistria as part of a military deception campaign (“maskirovka”). Russia aims to prevent Ukrainian forces in Odesa…

Cold War 2.0Ex-Soviet

Russian Mass-Casualty Attack on Civilians at Kramatorsk Train Station

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A Russian missile attack on Kramatorsk train station in eastern Ukraine has killed at least 50 people, likely only civilians, and wounded 100 others, on 8 April 2022. Kramatorsk hosts…

Cold War 2.0Ex-Soviet

Defeated in Kyiv, Russia Downsizes War Aims to Donbas and Southern Ukraine

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Key Judgements I. Defeated by Ukrainian maneuver defenses and counter-attacks, Russian forces have withdrawn from northwest Kyiv, and are reducing their presence in Chernihiv province. Returned to their launch points…

Cold War 2.0Euro-Atlantic

Russia Invades Ukraine: First Day of War Through OSINT

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In the early hours of 24 February 2022, Russia commenced a series of pre-assault operations to soften Ukrainian defenses ahead of an all-out, multi-axis invasion, which is now in progress….

Asia-PacificCold War 2.0

No Time To Dispute: Russia’s A2/AD in the South Kurils

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Remote and derelict, riddled with active volcanoes and disputed between Russia and Japan, the South Kurils make the perfect secret lair for any self-respecting evil genius. It’s no wonder the…

Cold War 2.0Special Research

Putin’s Mercenaries on Tour: Mapping the Wagner Group’s Global Activities

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Key Judgements Since its inception in 2014-2015, the Wagner group has expanded from a frontline contractor in Eastern Ukraine, to spearheading Russia’s foreign policy and private business objectives in Syria,…

Cold War 2.0Euro-Atlantic

"Do Not Enter:" Using OSINT to Monitor Russia's Wargames in the Black Sea

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Russia has concentrated warships from all fleets, except the Pacific fleet, in the Black Sea for joint drills. While not unprecedented, it is rare to see such a show of…

Cold War 2.0Euro-Atlantic

Echoes of the Cold War: Why "Bears" Like the G.I.U.K. Gap

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Russian military activity in the Greenland-Iceland-UK (GIUK) gap has increased exponentially in the past years. Launched from the Northern Fleet “bastion,” submarine-hunting, anti-surface, and maritime surveillance missions are at the…

CT/ COINMENA

Iran Tests Carrier-Killing Missile, Suicide Drones (and Other Insights from Exercise “Great Prophet 15”)

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During the latest military exercise(“Great Prophet” 15), the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps – Aerospace Forces (IRGC-AF) demonstrated how Iran would attack U.S. military bases and warships in the region. Great…

CT/ COINMENA

What We Know About the Secret Israeli-Saudi Meeting in Neom

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On 22 November 2020, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS), and Israeli Prime-Minister Netanyahu met in Neom (Kingdom of Saudi Arabia). The…

Arab Winter CT/ COIN Featured MENA SitRep

After Manbij, SDF eyes al-Bab

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The next operational step in SDF’s (Syrian Democratic Forces) successful campaign of ousting ISIS from Rojava (Kurdish for “West”; name for northern Syria) was under debate after the liberation of…

The next operational step in SDF’s (Syrian Democratic Forces) successful campaign of ousting ISIS from Rojava (Kurdish for “West”; name for northern Syria) was under debate after the liberation of Manbij from the terrorist occupation. One option was advancing towards the north, where Da’esh still has villages under control, and then continue to Jarabalus and free a major Turkish border checkpoint.

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Analysis Cold War 2.0 Hybrid Warfare Ukrainian Crisis

Another Bear Attack?

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Moscow and Kiev are putting their armies on high alert after Russia accused Ukrainian forces of launching raids into Crimea. Moreover, Russian troops at the de facto Crimean-Ukrainian border have…

Moscow and Kiev are putting their armies on high alert after Russia accused Ukrainian forces of launching raids into Crimea. Moreover, Russian troops at the de facto Crimean-Ukrainian border have open fired. Not only does Kiev dismisses this accusation, but there’s also proof of a recent Russian build up in Crimea that could point out of a possible new incursion into Ukrainian territory. More to say, that Russia has refused access of OSCE monitors and other organizations could not confirm an allegedly “Ukrainian incursion into Crimea”.

Could this be a sign that Russia’s hybrid warfare is ready to re-intensify in Ukraine?

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Analysis Arab Winter Featured MENA Terrorism

Nusra – Al Qaeda Split: Rebranding or Reform?

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Following Jabhat al-Nusra’s decision to split from the main Al-Qaeda structure with mutual acceptance, this descriptive analysis explores the organization’s history and its motives of this decision. It also considers…

Following Jabhat al-Nusra’s decision to split from the main Al-Qaeda structure with mutual acceptance, this descriptive analysis explores the organization’s history and its motives of this decision. It also considers prospective outcomes, taking into account all the major inputs of the regional and local chessboard as well as the geopolitical array.

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Euro-Atlantic Featured SitRep

NATO’s Warsaw Summit: Recap

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During July 8-9 the 27th NATO Summit has taken place in the Polish capital of Warsaw. This location was were decades ago, in 1955, the infaimous response to NATO was…

During July 8-9 the 27th NATO Summit has taken place in the Polish capital of Warsaw. This location was were decades ago, in 1955, the infaimous response to NATO was formed, by the Communists countries under Soviet influence: The Warsaw Pact. Now it hosts one of the most important meetings of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, in which agenda, a resurgent Russia and its destabilizing features in Eastern Europe, are hot topics.

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Uncategorized

Incirlik Air Base reopens with arrests

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The airbase located in south-east Turkey, near the city of Adana has been reopened after being shut and airspace closed as an aftermath of the Turkish Coup attempt.

The airbase located in south-east Turkey, near the city of Adana has been reopened after being shut and airspace closed as an aftermath of the Turkish Coup attempt.

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Arab Winter Featured

The Forgotten “Wild Card”: Israel in Syria

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Recent Context Following Benjamin’s Netanyahu’s Monday announcement, we can conclude that Israel has hit “dozens of targets” in Syria against Hezbollah. No further detailed intelligence is known except that the…

Recent Context

Following Benjamin’s Netanyahu’s Monday announcement, we can conclude that Israel has hit “dozens of targets” in Syria against Hezbollah. No further detailed intelligence is known except that the motivation for the attacks was to stop the Shiia non-state actor from acquiring more weapons. The purpose of this analysis is to unravel what’s Israel’s interest in Syria and how can it be applied on the current scenario.

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Arab Winter Cold War 2.0 CT/ COIN

Context and Risks of the “Little Green Men” in Syria

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Context The following is a risk assessment regarding recent intelligence reports of Russian activity in Syria. Apart from advising and weapon supply, this includes capacity building and asset deployment.  In…

Context

The following is a risk assessment regarding recent intelligence reports of Russian activity in Syria. Apart from advising and weapon supply, this includes capacity building and asset deployment.  In the eve of a re-emergence of Russia’s willingness to intervene in the Middle East, in this content we will prospect what implication could that have on the New Middle Eastern Order, but also possible and immediate tactical and operational effects.

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