Conflict. Security. Defense.
Cold War 2.0Ex-Soviet

Target Transnistria: Russia’s Maskirovka and Pathways to Escalation (Threatcast)

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KEY JUDGEMENTS  I. We assess that Russian intelligence staged the recent provocations in Transnistria as part of a military deception campaign (“maskirovka”). Russia aims to prevent Ukrainian forces in Odesa…

Cold War 2.0Ex-Soviet

Russian Mass-Casualty Attack on Civilians at Kramatorsk Train Station

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A Russian missile attack on Kramatorsk train station in eastern Ukraine has killed at least 50 people, likely only civilians, and wounded 100 others, on 8 April 2022. Kramatorsk hosts…

Cold War 2.0Ex-Soviet

Defeated in Kyiv, Russia Downsizes War Aims to Donbas and Southern Ukraine

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Key Judgements I. Defeated by Ukrainian maneuver defenses and counter-attacks, Russian forces have withdrawn from northwest Kyiv, and are reducing their presence in Chernihiv province. Returned to their launch points…

Cold War 2.0Euro-Atlantic

Russia Invades Ukraine: First Day of War Through OSINT

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In the early hours of 24 February 2022, Russia commenced a series of pre-assault operations to soften Ukrainian defenses ahead of an all-out, multi-axis invasion, which is now in progress….

Asia-PacificCold War 2.0

No Time To Dispute: Russia’s A2/AD in the South Kurils

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Remote and derelict, riddled with active volcanoes and disputed between Russia and Japan, the South Kurils make the perfect secret lair for any self-respecting evil genius. It’s no wonder the…

Cold War 2.0Special Research

Putin’s Mercenaries on Tour: Mapping the Wagner Group’s Global Activities

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Key Judgements Since its inception in 2014-2015, the Wagner group has expanded from a frontline contractor in Eastern Ukraine, to spearheading Russia’s foreign policy and private business objectives in Syria,…

Cold War 2.0Euro-Atlantic

"Do Not Enter:" Using OSINT to Monitor Russia's Wargames in the Black Sea

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Russia has concentrated warships from all fleets, except the Pacific fleet, in the Black Sea for joint drills. While not unprecedented, it is rare to see such a show of…

Cold War 2.0Euro-Atlantic

Echoes of the Cold War: Why "Bears" Like the G.I.U.K. Gap

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Russian military activity in the Greenland-Iceland-UK (GIUK) gap has increased exponentially in the past years. Launched from the Northern Fleet “bastion,” submarine-hunting, anti-surface, and maritime surveillance missions are at the…

CT/ COINMENA

Iran Tests Carrier-Killing Missile, Suicide Drones (and Other Insights from Exercise “Great Prophet 15”)

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During the latest military exercise(“Great Prophet” 15), the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps – Aerospace Forces (IRGC-AF) demonstrated how Iran would attack U.S. military bases and warships in the region. Great…

CT/ COINMENA

What We Know About the Secret Israeli-Saudi Meeting in Neom

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On 22 November 2020, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS), and Israeli Prime-Minister Netanyahu met in Neom (Kingdom of Saudi Arabia). The…

Arab Winter Cold War 2.0 CT/ COIN

Context and Risks of the “Little Green Men” in Syria

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Context The following is a risk assessment regarding recent intelligence reports of Russian activity in Syria. Apart from advising and weapon supply, this includes capacity building and asset deployment.  In…

Context

The following is a risk assessment regarding recent intelligence reports of Russian activity in Syria. Apart from advising and weapon supply, this includes capacity building and asset deployment.  In the eve of a re-emergence of Russia’s willingness to intervene in the Middle East, in this content we will prospect what implication could that have on the New Middle Eastern Order, but also possible and immediate tactical and operational effects.

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