Target Transnistria: Russia’s Maskirovka and Pathways to Escalation (Threatcast)

KEY JUDGEMENTS  I. We assess that Russian intelligence staged the recent provocations in Transnistria as part of a military deception campaign (“maskirovka”). Russia aims to prevent Ukrainian forces in Odesa…

Russian Mass-Casualty Attack on Civilians at Kramatorsk Train Station

A Russian missile attack on Kramatorsk train station in eastern Ukraine has killed at least 50 people, likely only civilians, and wounded 100 others, on 8 April 2022. Kramatorsk hosts…

Defeated in Kyiv, Russia Downsizes War Aims to Donbas and Southern Ukraine

Key Judgements I. Defeated by Ukrainian maneuver defenses and counter-attacks, Russian forces have withdrawn from northwest Kyiv, and are reducing their presence in Chernihiv province. Returned to their launch points…

Russia Invades Ukraine: First Day of War Through OSINT

In the early hours of 24 February 2022, Russia commenced a series of pre-assault operations to soften Ukrainian defenses ahead of an all-out, multi-axis invasion, which is now in progress….

No Time To Dispute: Russia’s A2/AD in the South Kurils

Remote and derelict, riddled with active volcanoes and disputed between Russia and Japan, the South Kurils make the perfect secret lair for any self-respecting evil genius. It’s no wonder the…

Putin’s Mercenaries on Tour: Mapping the Wagner Group’s Global Activities

Key Judgements Since its inception in 2014-2015, the Wagner group has expanded from a frontline contractor in Eastern Ukraine, to spearheading Russia’s foreign policy and private business objectives in Syria,…

"Do Not Enter:" Using OSINT to Monitor Russia's Wargames in the Black Sea

Russia has concentrated warships from all fleets, except the Pacific fleet, in the Black Sea for joint drills. While not unprecedented, it is rare to see such a show of…

Echoes of the Cold War: Why "Bears" Like the G.I.U.K. Gap

Russian military activity in the Greenland-Iceland-UK (GIUK) gap has increased exponentially in the past years. Launched from the Northern Fleet “bastion,” submarine-hunting, anti-surface, and maritime surveillance missions are at the…

Iran Tests Carrier-Killing Missile, Suicide Drones (and Other Insights from Exercise “Great Prophet 15”)

During the latest military exercise(“Great Prophet” 15), the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps – Aerospace Forces (IRGC-AF) demonstrated how Iran would attack U.S. military bases and warships in the region. Great…

What We Know About the Secret Israeli-Saudi Meeting in Neom

On 22 November 2020, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS), and Israeli Prime-Minister Netanyahu met in Neom (Kingdom of Saudi Arabia). The…

Context and Risks of the “Little Green Men” in Syria

Context The following is a risk assessment regarding recent intelligence reports of Russian activity in Syria. Apart from advising and weapon supply, this includes capacity building and asset deployment.  In…

Context

The following is a risk assessment regarding recent intelligence reports of Russian activity in Syria. Apart from advising and weapon supply, this includes capacity building and asset deployment.  In the eve of a re-emergence of Russia’s willingness to intervene in the Middle East, in this content we will prospect what implication could that have on the New Middle Eastern Order, but also possible and immediate tactical and operational effects.

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